Insurance Brief: Heatwaves Increase Excess Mortality In Europe
Heatwaves are becoming one of Europe's deadliest climate risks, with the continent warming at roughly twice the global average rate. The tens of thousands of additional deaths recorded during this summer's various heatwaves reflect a broader and persistent increase in heat-related excess mortality.
Record heatwaves and "feels like" temperatures of up to 48 degrees Celsius this summer have exposed large parts of Europe to extreme heat stress. Even typically cooler Scandinavian countries suffered from unusually high temperatures, albeit to a lesser extent than Western Europe.
The health impact fell disproportionately on elderly people. More than 9,000 of the 10,650 excess deaths recorded during the week of June 22-28 were among those aged 65 and over, with heat exacerbating underlying conditions, such as cardiovascular diseases and dehydration.
Chart 1 | More intense heatwaves increase excess mortality
Sources: Robert Koch Institut, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Santé publique France, UK Health Security Agency.
The extreme heatwaves in Europe coincide with rapidly ageing populations. Between 2004 and 2024, the share of people aged 65 and over in the EU increased to 21.6% from 16.4%, while the proportion of those aged 80 and over rose to 6.1% from 3.8%. Over the same period, the share of young people reduced, with the proportion of those under 19 declining to 20.0% from 22.4% and the share of those under 15 decreasing to 14.6% from 16.2%.
The increasing share of elderly people--who are particularly vulnerable to heat stress--suggests that heat-related mortality in Europe is likely to rise.
The extreme heatwaves are affecting the insurance sector. While non-life primary insurers and reinsurers (re/insurers) face rising drought- and wildfire-related claims, primary life and health re/insurers must handle more mortality claims and increased demand for medical services. And because heatwaves can affect large geographic regions and may persist over weeks, accumulation and systemic risks also rise.
Since younger age groups are generally least affected by heat stress, the effect of extreme heat events on disability and term life insurance may be limited. However, health, long-term care, and annuity insurers might be more affected, particularly where the effects of rising temperatures were not fully reflected in the original contracts. Beyond heat-related deaths, it's also deteriorating health conditions and the resulting increase in treatment and hospitalizations that might weigh on re/insurers' financials and, subsequently, increase premiums.
The implications of high temperatures and demographic aging might become increasingly relevant for life and health re/insurers. We estimate that the effects of this summer's heatwaves--including excess mortality and the deterioration of existing health conditions--affect European re/insurers' financials, but not to an extent that would affect ratings.
That said, the rating implications of heatwaves could increase over the medium to long term as extreme summer temperatures become more frequent and intense and Europe's population continues to age. We will continue to monitor their impact on the performance of rated re/insurers.
Overall, we think European life re/insurers are well positioned to assess and manage these risks. We expect that insurers will develop action plans over the next few years and that they will contribute to overall resilience measures by supporting loss-prevention initiatives and raising policyholders' awareness of heat-related health risks.
Volker KudszusFrankfurt+49-693-399-9192volker.kudszus@spglobal.com
Johannes Bender Frankfurt +49-693-399-9196 johannes.bender@spglobal.com
Robert J GreenstedLondon+44-20-7176-7095robert.greensted@spglobal.comMarc-Philippe Juilliard Paris +33-14-075-2510 m-philippe.juilliard@spglobal.com
Taos D Fudji Milan +390272111276 taos.fudji@spglobal.com
Liesl Saldanha London+44-20-7176-0489liesl.saldanha@spglobal.com
Andreas Lundgren Harell Stockholm +46-8-440-5921 andreas.lundgren.harell@spglobal.com
Simon AshworthLondon+44-20-7176-7243simon.ashworth@spglobal.com
Ralf Bender, CFAFrankfurt+49-693-399-9194ralf.bender@spglobal.com
