Global Reinsurance Sector View 2026: Reinsurers Face Balancing Act
We expect reinsurance pricing to soften further in 2027 due to ample capacity from traditional reinsurers and alternative capital providers. As a result, underwriting performance and overall profitability are likely to decline over 2026-2027.
While geopolitical instability, social inflation, and natural catastrophe exposure remain key risks, we expect the sector to remain resilient through 2026-2027.
Our AI survey suggests that reinsurers are successfully adopting AI, with current use cases mainly in support functions, process automation, and risk management.
Our global reinsurance sector view remains stable, with strong fundamentals helping offset increasingly difficult near-term market conditions.
S&P Global Ratings maintains a stable view of the global reinsurance sector. Reinsurers have entered the 2026 hurricane season from a position of strength, supported by record-high capital adequacy and strong year-to-date operating performance. Even so, near-term headwinds are emerging.
Abundant capacity and lower-than-expected catastrophe losses in recent years suggest that reinsurance pricing will remain under pressure through 2027. As a result, reinsurers are likely to face increasing pressure to loosen terms and conditions, while property and casualty (P&C) reinsurers' underwriting margins and overall profitability will gradually compress over 2026-2027.
That said, we believe underwriting margins and overall profitability will remain sufficient to cover the sector's cost of capital. This reflects still healthy P&C reinsurance combined ratios, solid net investment income, and strong life reinsurance earnings, provided annual natural catastrophe and large man-made losses remain within the annual budgets.
Natural catastrophes, geopolitical conflicts, and social inflation--which will continue to require robust risk and portfolio management--as well as softening prices may curb near-term growth. However, the sizable protection gap in areas such as cyber risk, renewable energy, and data centers presents growth opportunities.
The sector's primary risks remain insurance-related rather than asset-related. Natural catastrophe exposure and loss reserve volatility continue to be the key sources of risk, while investment risk remains significantly lower than in the primary insurance sector. We will continue to monitor reinsurers' exposure to less liquid assets, including private equity, real estate, and private debt.
Over the past 12 months, most rating actions within our benchmark reinsurance group have been positive, reflecting stronger capilization, robust earnings, and improving earnings diversification.
The industry remains highly rated. The average rating on companies in our reinsurance benchmark group (African Re, Arch, Arundo Re, Ascot, AXIS, China Re, Convex, Everest, Fairfax, Pelagos, Hannover Re, Hiscox, Lancashire, Lloyd's, Munich Re, RenRe, SCOR, Sirius, Swiss Re, and Toa Re) is at the upper end of the 'A' category.
Our ratings outlook is stable for 85% of the benchmark group, positive for 10%, and negative for 5%.
Table 1 | Reinsurance rating actions over the past 12 months
Company
Date
To
From
Rationale
Ascot group ltd.
Aug. 28, 2025
A/Stable
a-*
Strengthened capital position, significantly exceeding the 99.99% confidence level, with robust underwriting results
SiriusPoint Ltd.
Oct. 2, 2025
A-/Positive
A-/Stable
Improved risk profile due to reduced net exposure to natural catastrophic losses and less higher-risk assets in the investment portfolio; significantly improved earnings
African Reinsurance Corp.
Nov. 26, 2025
Long track record of strong operating performance and foreign currency risk management, which is particularly important in African countries
Lancashire Holdings Ltd.
Dec. 17, 2025
Improved competitiveness due to higher portfolio resilience and earnings quality that enhanced the company's ability to absorb losses through earnings
April 21, 2026
Continuously strong earnings generation from underwriting and investment portfolios that contributed to a significant excess of capital above our 99.99% confidence level
Arundo Re Société anonyme
April 30, 2026
Very strong financial risk profile and upward revision of the stand-alone credit profile to 'a' from 'a-' due to strengthening profitability and capital buffers
Toa Reinsurance Group
June 29, 2026
A/Positive
Enhanced risk control frameworks and improving operating performance
Munich Reinsurance Co.
July 10, 2026
AA/Stable
Strong track record of conservative capital management, leading to an upward revision of our capital and earnings assessment to excellent from very strong and of the financial risk profile to very strong from strong
Data as of Aug. 31, 2026. *Group credit profile. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Chart 1 | The vast majority of reinsurance rating outlooks is stableReinsurance benchmark group
Data as of Aug. 31, 2026. Our reinsurance benchmark group includes African Re, Arch, Arundo Re, Ascot, AXIS, China Re, Convex, Everest, Fairfax, Pelagos, Hannover Re, Hiscox, Lancashire, Lloyd's, Munich Re, RenRe, SCOR, Sirius, Swiss Re, and Toa Re. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Chart 2 | Most reinsurers are rated 'A'Reinsurance benchmark group
Our AI survey among a representative number of our benchmark reinsurance group suggests that most reinsurers invest in AI, with all companies in our sample reporting that AI is already part of their strategy or currently being implemented.
Current AI strategies focus on improving business productivity and efficiency by leveraging support functions and tools to automate workflows and increase general workforce productivity.
An increasing number of reinsurers use AI to analyze large datasets in areas such as underwriting, claims processing, and real-time operational monitoring.
78% of surveyed reinsurers have established AI governance frameworks and the remaining 22% are developing frameworks. Additionally, all reinsurers have processes in place to identify, monitor, and mitigate failures or breaches of AI models.
Security and data privacy remain primary challenges for AI adoption. All surveyed reinsurers identified vulnerabilities in data, models, or the supply chain as key risks to their AI initiatives. The most significant risks related to AI models are the lack of transparency in AI decision-making (100%) and the risk of AI providing false information (75%).
Most reinsurers rely on both internal and external AI models. While 88% develop capabilities in-house, the use of off-the-shelf AI models or customized AI solutions is also common, with 75% of respondents using both.
Chart 3 | Reinsurers mainly use AI to improve internal support functions and efficiency gainsMost important AI use cases (% of survey respondents)
Results based on a representative group of our rated reinsurers. Developing new products and services includes sales and marketing. Efficiency gains through automation include automated underwriting, claims processing automation, automated policy renewals, etc. Customer solutions--AI-powered chatbots for customer service, personalized policy recommendations, claims triage and initial assessment, proactive customer communication, etc. Risk management functions--Fraud detection, predictive modelling for catastrophe risk, etc. Support functions--AI-powered chatbots for internal IT support, automated invoice processing, HR tasks, etc. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Chart 4 | Reinsurers identify security and privacy issues as the main challengesTop 3 challenges (% of survey respondents)
Results based on a representative group of rated reinsurers. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Chart 5 | Reinsurers use both external and internal AI modelsOrigin of AI models (% of survey respondents)
Chart 6 | Reinsurers make significant progress in their AI adoptionCurrent state of AI integration (survey results)
Chart 7 | Most reinsurers have integrated AI on an enterprise-wide levelHow reinsurers integrate AI (survey results)
The global reinsurance sector's operating performance has been strong since 2023. Assuming natural catastrophe losses remain within reinsurers' budgets in 2026-2027, the sector will earn returns above its cost of capital for the fifth consecutive year.
Year-to-date results have been strong, benefiting from relatively low natural catastrophe losses. To date, the Middle East war has not resulted in material losses for the sector.
Our base-case scenario assumes a decline in P&C reinsurers' underwriting margins as pricing continues to soften. This will increase the combined ratio by about 2-4 percentage points over 2026-2027, assuming that natural catastrophe losses are in line with reinsurers' projected budgets.
Athough we expect softer pricing in P&C lines, reinsurers continue to benefit from strong net investment income, which will support the overall operating performance.
We forecast a return on equity (ROE) of 12%-15% in 2026 and 10%-13% in 2027; an undiscounted combined ratio of 92%-95% in 2026 and 94%-97% in 2027; positive reserve releases of 1-2 percentage points; and strong net investment income with a net investment yield of 3.5%-4.0%.
Chart 8 | Reinsurers' operating performance remains strong(%)
We adjusted the data for 2023 and 2024 to account for the Bermuda deferred tax asset benefit. H1--First-half. Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Global Ratings.
Table 2 | Reinsurers' operating performance
(%)
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026f
2027f
Net combined ratio
96.3
96.1
89.8
90.7
89.0
~92-95
~94-97
(Favorable)/unfavorable reserve developments
(2.6)
(1.8)
(0.5)
(2.5)
~(1-2)
Net natural catastrophe losses' impact on the combined ratio
9.0
8.9
4.5
6.1
5.0
~6-8
Accident-year combined ratio, excluding natural catastrophe losses and reserve developments
87.1
85.1
86.5
88.0
90.0
Return on equity
8.7
3.0
22.6
17.5
19.1
12-15
10-13
Net investment yield
2.3
2.0
2.9
3.4
3.8
~3.5-4.0
For 2023-2027f, we used undiscounted combined ratios for companies reporting under International Financial Reporting Standards 17. f--Forecast.Our reinsurance benchmark group includes African Re, Arch, Arundo Re, Ascot, AXIS, China Re, Convex, Everest, Fairfax, Pelagos, Hannover Re, Hiscox, Lancashire, Lloyd's, Munich Re, RenRe, SCOR, Sirius, Swiss Re, and Toa Re. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Wildfires and convective storms contributed most to insured losses in 2025 and year to date.
While Swiss Re indicated that insured natural catstrophe losses totaled about $42 billion in first-half 2026--below the 10-year average of $50 billion--recent events underscore the risk of tail events. These include the earthquake in Kumamoto, Japan, in July, the heatwaves and wildfires in Southern Europe in July and August, and Hurricane "Lala" in mid-August 2026, which led to the first meaningful insured loss of this year's hurricane season.
A severe stress scenario implies a $73 billion buffer before capital depletion, assuming base-case investment returns, and before any shareholder distributions. More than half of our benchmark reinsurance group saw an underlying increase in natural catastrophe exposure in January 2026 from January 2025. However, the pace of this growth, at about 9%, was in line with general business and capital growth.
The 2026 natural catastrophe loss budget for our benchmark reinsurance cohort is approximately $21.5 billion. We believe the sector's capitalization is likely to withstand severe industrywide losses exceeding $300 billion without the benchmark group's capitalization falling below our 99.99% confidence level. (see "Global Reinsurers Keep Natural Catstrophe Losses Under Control," Sept. 1, 2026).
Geopolitical risks continue to pose challenges to both sides of reinsurers' balance sheets. Year to date, losses related to the Middle East war have been manageable. Most losses from the war have been concentrated in political risk, marine, and terrorism lines of business.
Social inflation in U.S. casualty lines have increased reserving volatility in recent years and prompted many global reinsurers to strengthen their reserves. While higher pricing and additonal reserve strengthening have helped mitgate pressures, the underlying drivers of social inflation remain largely unchanged. As a result, the risk of further reserve volatility persists, including for the most recently underwritten accident years.
Growth opportunities will likely arise from innovative products--such as parametric drought coverage--and the significant protection gap (the difference between economic and insured losses) of about 60% in the first half of 2026. The gap is particularly pronounced in areas such as cyber, renewable energy, and data centers (see "Data Centers Offer A Hyperscale Pool Of Insurable Risks," April 13, 2026).
We expect reinsurers will remain the backbone of insurers' ability to transfer cyber risk, making the reinsurance market the primary absorber of cyber accumulation risk as cyber exposures grow in scale and interconnectedness (see "Soft Market, Hard Reality: Cyber Insurance Is At An Inflection Point," July 15, 2026).
Reinsurers continue to leverage managing general agents for specialized underwriting and distribution. This requires strong oversight to protect earnings and companies' reputation.
Chart 9 | Natural catastrophes have led to fewer losses than in previous yearsGlobal insured natural catastrophe losses (bil. $)
Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Chart 10 | Our reinsurance cohort covered 13.5% of total insured industry catastrophe losses in 2025
Our reinsurance benchmark group includes African Re, Arch, Arundo Re, Ascot, AXIS, China Re, Convex, Everest, Fairfax, Pelagos, Hannover Re, Hiscox, Lancashire, Lloyd's, Munich Re, RenRe, SCOR, Sirius, Swiss Re, and Toa Re. Sources: Swiss Re, S&P Global Ratings.
Chart 11 | Most reinsurers in our benchmark group have a measured approach to underlying catastrophe exposureReinsurance cohort relative change in net 1-in-250-year aggregate loss (%)
Chart 12 | The industry's capital surplus suggests resilience in stress scenariosCapital surplus as per S&P Global Ratings' capital model (bil. $)
Blue represents capital adequacy redundancy at the defined confidence level. Orange represents expectations for 2026 earnings and budget. Green represents stresses at the defined return period. PBT--Profit before tax. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Capitalization strengthened further on the back of robust earnings and remains one of the sector's key strengths. Our benchmark reinsurance cohort's capital redundancy at the highest confidence level increased to 11% in 2025 from 10% in 2024.
Supported by strong operating performance, our benchmark reinsurance cohort returned more than $20 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, while generating net income of more than $50 billion in 2025.
The sector remains resilient, with its risk profile driven more by large natural catastrophe events and reserve development than by asset-related risks.
Reinsurance and retrocession capacity continuned to expand in 2025 and into 2026. This was due to ample traditional reinsurance capacity and growing alternative capital, particularly through catastrophe bonds and sidecars (see "Credit FAQ: Assessing The Rise Of P/C Insurance Sidecars," June 30, 2026).
Investor demand for alternative capital remains strong, reflecting the low correlation between insurance risks and traditional financial capital market risks. Investor appetite is also increasing for emerging and non-peak risks, including casualty, cyber, and wildfire exposures.
We expect ample reinsurance and retrocession capacity to remain available for the upcoming renewal seasons.
Table 3 | Property pricing 2026
January renewals
Territory
Pro-rata commission
Risk-loss-free
Risk-loss-hit
Catastrophe-loss-free
Catastrophe-loss-hit
Australia and New Zealand
0% to +2.5%
-2.5% to -10%
0% to +7.5%
-7.5% to -15%
+2.5% to +10%
Central and Eastern Europe
0%
-5% to -10%
0% to +5%
-5% to -20%
N.A.
Latin America and the Caribbean
0% to +2%
-10% to 0%
0% to +10%
-5% to -15%
Middle East
-10% to -20%
Africa
-10% to -15%
South Africa
U.K.
-7.5% to -10%
-10% to +10%
-15% to -25%
U.S.
0% to +1.5%
-15% to -20%
-5% to 0%
April renewals
India
+2% to 5%
0% to -5%
Japan
+3% to 5%
-15% to -17.5%
Philippines
-11% to -22%
-10%
-15% to -18%
South Korea
+3% to +5%
+5% to +20%
+1% to +2%
+2% to 4%
July renewals
+2.5% to +5%
-12.5% to -17.5%
Ireland
-5%
-5% to +5%
0% to +15%
+1%
-22.5%
-20% to -25%
Loss-free--Unaffected by losses. Loss-hit--Affected by losses. N.A.--Not available. Source: Gallagher Re.
Table 4 | Casualty pricing 2026
Excess of loss--no loss emergence
Excess of loss--with loss emergence
U.K. & Lloyds--General third-party liability and financial lines
0% to +1%
International
-2% to -8%
U.S.--General third-party liability
-1% to +1%
-7.5% to 0%
U.S.--Healthcare
-1% to 0%
0% to +6%
+5% to +15%
U.S.--Financial and professional lines
U.S.--Worker compensation
Japan--General third-party liability
Risk-adjusted +2.5% to +5%Monetary -7.5% to -12%
Japan--Personal accident
Monetary -5% to -12.5%
U.S.--Commercial auto
-2% to 0%
+10% to +15%
0% to +7%
U.S.--Professional liability
0% to +0.5%
-7.5% to +2.5%
International casualty
Chart 13 | Capitalization is strong
Chart shows aggregate capital adequacy for the reinsurance benchmark cohort by confidence level, according to S&P Global Ratings' risk-based insurance capital adequacy model. Our reinsurance benchmark group includes African Re, Arch, Arundo Re, Ascot, AXIS, China Re, Convex, Everest, Fairfax, Pelagos, Hannover Re, Hiscox, Lancashire, Lloyd's, Munich Re, RenRe, SCOR, Sirius, Swiss Re, and Toa Re. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Chart 14 | Traditional and alternative capital have reached record highs(Bil. $)
Q1--First-quarter. Source: Aon plc.
Chart 15 | Reinsurance benchmark cohort's capitalization under stress scenariosReinsurance benchmark group (bil. $)
Potential loss excludes large loss budgets, earnings, or management actions. Our reinsurance benchmark group includes African Re, Arch, Arundo Re, Ascot, AXIS, China Re, Convex, Everest, Fairfax, Pelagos, Hannover Re, Hiscox, Lancashire, Lloyd's, Munich Re, RenRe, SCOR, Sirius, Swiss Re, and Toa Re. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Reinsurance and retrocession renewals in 2026 recorded double-digit rate declines across most major lines and regions. Leading global reinsurers Swiss Re, Munich Re, and Hannover Re reported risk-adjusted price reductions of about 3%-5% across their portfolios.
During the 2026 renewals, reinsurers showed greater willingness to concede on pricing, while largely defending attachment points and maintaining underwriting discipline on terms and conditions, despite increasing market pressure.
Property-catastrophe reinsurance experienced broad-based softening in 2026, with double-digit rate reductions across North America, Europe, and Asia.
Casualty pricing trends were more mixed. In North America, rates continued to rise moderately due to reserves and loss volatility from social inflation, whereas loss-free accounts generally experienced moderate rate decreases.
International casualty markets softened moderately, supported by more stable loss environment and increased capacity.
We expect pricing pressure to persist through 2027. Rate reductions could match those seen in 2026, even if large losses reach annual budget levels. Ample reinsurance and retrocession capacity is likely to exert additional pressure on terms and conditions, including coverage provisions and attachment points.
However, we expect the sector to continue earning returns above its cost of capital in 2027, as underwriting discipline and contract structures remain more robust than they were at the trough of the previous cycle.
Reinsurers have largely maintained their conservative investment risk appetite, which remains lower than those of primary insurers and relatively modest compared with their insurance-based risks.
Fixed income securities accounted for more than 70% of investments in 2025. Of these, more than 74% are rated 'A' or above, and 91% are rated 'BBB-' or above.
We think the sector's exposure to higher-risk assets--such as commercial property and mortgages, public equities, private equity, and private debt--would be manageable in a stress scenario.
The sector maintains well-matched asset and liability profiles and has ample liquidity to cover large losses.
Strong investment income remains a tailwind for the industry, with high re-investment rates supporting earnings.
Chart 16 | Reinsurers' investment portfolios remain well diversifiedInvestment portfolio allocation (%)
Chart 17 | Reinsurers' fixed income credit quality is highRatings on reinsurers' fixed income investments (%)
The life reinsurance market remains fundamentally sound and continued to support the overall reinsurance sector's strong profitability in 2025 and the first half of 2026.
Due to high barriers to entry, the life reinsurance market is more concentrated than the P&C sector and less price-sensitive. Demand mainly depends on balance-sheet management rather than capacity, with reinsurance buyers preferring direct relationships over intermediaries.
The recent growth in funded reinsurance deals, including the transfer of asset and biometric risks, is mainly underwritten by insurers and reinsurers (re/insurers) with significant expertise in asset management. For example, several re/insurers are owned by private equity firms. By contrast, the traditional reinsurers in our life reinsurance cohort (China Re, Hannover Re, Munich Re, Partner Re, RGA, SCOR, and Swiss Re) continue to focus on biometric risks.
We estimate that the life reinsurance subsector's ROE will average 12%-14% over 2026-2027, providing reinsurers with stable and diversified earnings.
Mortality rates in the U.S. seem to have stabilized at pre-pandemic levels. Although recent heatwaves in Europe increased heat-related deaths and deteriorated existing health conditions, we think the sector remains well positioned to assess and manage these risks (see "Heatwaves Increase Excess Mortality In Europe," Aug. 18, 2026).
In parts of Asia, where insurance coverage is low, demand for longevity risk transfer and capital management provides growth opportunities.
Chart 18 | Life reinsurers are set to benefit from stable earningsReturn on equity (%)
f--Forecast. Sources: China Re, Hannover Re, Munich Re, PartnerRe, RGA, SCOR, Swiss Re, S&P Global Ratings.
The global reinsurance sector is once again exhibiting its cyclical characteristics and is likely to face more challenging market conditions in 2027.
In this environment, disciplined underwriting, active portfolio management, and robust risk controls will be critical to sustaining underwriting performance and profitability above the sector's cost of capital.
Reinsurers best positioned to navigate the next phase of the cycle will be those that begin managing the cycle proactively, retain strategic flexibility to adjust capacity and risk appetite as market conditions evolve, and benefit from diversified business portfolios that are less exposed to cyclical pressure.
Table 5 | Rating snapshot
Group 1
FSR
Outlook
Anchor
BRP
Competitve position
IICRA
FRP
AA
Stable
aa
Very strong
Excellent
Intermediate
Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd.
AA-
aa-
Society of Lloyd's
Strong
Hannover Rueck SE
SCOR SE
A+
a+
Low
Group 2
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.
Positive
Everest Group Ltd.
Negative
Satisfactory
Group 3
AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd.
A
a
China Reinsurance (Group) Corp.
a-
Fair
Hiscox Insurance Co. Ltd.
Convex Group Ltd.
Ascot Group Ltd.
High
Arundo Re
Pelagos Insurance Capital
A-
Data as of Aug. 31, 2026. C&E--Capital and earnings. CRA--Comparable rating analysis. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Table 6 | Rating snapshot (continued)
C&E score
Risk exposure
Funding structure
Governance
CRA/group support
Liquidity
Moderately high
Neutral
0
Exceptional
Adequate
1
Moderately Low
Johannes Bender Frankfurt +49-693-399-9196 johannes.bender@spglobal.comTaoufik GharibNew York+1-212-438-7253taoufik.gharib@spglobal.comRobert J GreenstedLondon+44-20-7176-7095robert.greensted@spglobal.com
Michael ZimmermanEnglewood+303-721-4575michael.zimmerman@spglobal.comWenWen ChenHong Kong+852-2533-3559wenwen.chen@spglobal.comSimon AshworthLondon+44-20-7176-7243simon.ashworth@spglobal.comSaurabh B KhasnisEnglewood+1-303-721-4554saurabh.khasnis@spglobal.com
Charles-Marie DelpuechLondon+44-20-7176-7967charles-marie.delpuech@spglobal.com Maren Josefs London+44-20-7176-7050maren.josefs@spglobal.comAndreas LindbergStockholm+4-67-64-950-026andreas.lindberg@spglobal.comLaura Jimenez, CFALondon+44-20-7176-0839laura.jimenez@spglobal.com
Rahul IyerCRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate MumbaiAkhilesh WankhedeCRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate Pune